Gnistan Helsinki VS HJK Helsinki
Gnistan and HJK lock horns in this Finnish Veikkausliiga battle at Mustapekka Areena in Oulunkylä, Helsinki, late Wednesday evening Beijing time. I will, of course, be at the stadium myself! HJK have played 12 games and Gnistan 11 matches in this league, the first tier of Finnish football, so far. The level of Veikkausliiga is sadly very low by European standards. The fact that HJK Helsinki qualified for the UEFA Europa League group stage in the 2022-2023 season, and for the UEFA Conference League group stage 2021-2022 - as well as last season - does not change this fact.. Other Finnish clubs have been pretty useless in the UEFA's club competitions Qualification rounds in recent years. The level of Veikkausliiga has been on the rise in recent years 3-5 though.. Most teams in this league play well-organized and tactical but pretty slow, boring and predictable football. Gnistan's style of play is more modern and active than that of many other clubs though.. Their head coach Jussi Leppälahti seemingly hates "parking the buss - ie. passive, defensive football. He wants his team to press the opponent's defence – even when this tactic might not be the best one in terms of maximizing the result.. HJK can play in various ways but will probably have 58-63% ball possession here against an inferior opponent. I believe the HJK skipper, Lucas Lingman, with Hans Sarpei - as Kanellopoulos is still out - will rule the midfield, passing the ball to strikers Plange, Olysanya and Hostikka. Sarpei has not been at his best yet but has played even in the German Bundesliga in the past. Furthermore, Topi Keskinen, 21, is most probably the fastest player in this league and the winger/midfielder is a weapon for HJK against any team! He will most probably be sold to a bigger club soon for some 1.5-2 million euros. This is a very high number by Veikkausliiga standards!
As a Finnish professional football bettor I know this league extremely well and the long-term results have been fine! Moreover, we have now won five of the last six picks betting on Veikkausliiga! I have posted picks on two other Veikkausliiga games as well! My fans and I can expect a game of slightly higher than average level by this league's standards here. This should be a pretty entertaining game to watch – unless the Gnistan boss Leppälahti chooses a defensive tactic - which is very improbable.. At times Gnistan tried to be pretty aggressive – but simply could not - the last time the teams locked horns – at Bolt Arena on the 22nd of May. HJK comfortably won 1-0. Gnistan had only one shot on goal, HJK managed four. Furthermore, Gnistan generated very little in expected goals (xG) in this match.. I want to highlight that HJK were in poor form – and low in confidence - when the match was played.. Their head coach, Spaniard Ferran Sibila, had just been sacked and replaced with Toni "Toke" Korkeakunnas, 56. The situation at HJK was messy to say the least off the pitch, too..vIndeed, officially Ossi Virta was the head coach, not Sibila, because of the fact that Sibila did not have the required (to work as the head coach) UEFA Pro License! The HJK management, Vesa Mäki in particular, had really screwed up badly, failing to be aware of this when signing Sibila! Mäki, to the delight of almost all HJK fans, was also sacked in May. Rather interestingly, Toni Korkeakunnas replaced Toni Koskela in July last season (!) when HJK were playing badly - especially their offense was very lame at the time.. Toke eventually led his men to the 4th Veikkausliiga championship in a row and - as mentioned - to the Conference League group stage! A fine achievement in my opinion! No, he is not an elite coach – even by Finnish standards - in terms of tactical skills but is a great leader and has seemingly – similarly to last season - created a positive, relaxed atmosphere within the team! This is very important as HJK have been a gigantic disappointment early season as a whole. Ossi Virta, a young and very enthusiastic guy, and now an assistant coach, is good at organizing and improving HJK's offense.. This has traditionally been Toke's weakness.. He has mainly worked for pretty lowly "underdog" clubs - such is FC Lahti and MyPa (now playing at a low level) - with a limited squad - in the past though. Moreover, former Chelsea and Birmingham City (who played in the English Premier League at the time) - as well as Finnish national team striker - Mikael Forssell also joined the HJK coaching team a few days ago. He is a very inexperienced coach but I believe he is able to improve HJK's offense! He is a likable and charismatic guy – and is loved by most HJK fans.
HJK's most important new player this season is the Englishman Luke Plange, who joined the team from Crystal Palace (a decent English Premier League team) on a loan for this season. He has not played in the best league in the world yet but was on Crystal Palace's bench which reflects his significant potential! In Veikkausliiga he should be a star.. No, he has not yet met the (high) expectations with HJK but scored three goals in some 20 minutes in HJK's last game! This was surely a huge relief and confidence boost to Luke! Indeed, HJK beat SJK, a dangerous team who are currently in 6th place, 4-1 at home last Friday – coming back from 0-1. They deserved the three points but were still far from their best level.. HJK are in 3rd place in the standings with 19 points to their account. They have scored 19 goals and have allowed 13 goals. Yes, this pick – HJK to win – is strongly based on HJK's potential – and Gnistan's weaknesses/overvaluation on the betting market. The early season statistics would, in all honesty, not justify a bet on HJK at the current odds of around 1.70.. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis - with the expected lineups - their chance of winning is 64-65%. By pure class HJK are the best team in Finland, as they have been for almost five years now! Gnistan, on the other hand, were promoted to this level from Ykkönen (now known as Ykkösliiga) for this season. They finished in 2nd place in Ykkönen last season but got a chance to play in Veikkausliiga as Honka, a good team, went bankrupt last autumn. Gnistan have unarguably played better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis but have, as a result, become too hot on the betting market.. I need to mention that they were widely rated as the 10th or 11th-best team in this league before the season kicked off.. Many of their players, especially striker J. Latonen, have played above their normal level so far.. Latonen, not a very young guy anymore, had never made a breakthrough in Veikkausliiga before and has scored many more goals than he should have in terms of xG. Gnistan have grabbed 12 points and are in 8th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 10.03. They have scored 14 goals but in reality they lack offensive quality of this level! Their number of expected goals (xG) is only 11.46. Rather interestingly, they scored six goals against Ilves, one of the best teams in Veikkausliiga, at Tammelan Stadion in April – generating only some 1.40 in xG.. Gnistan's defence is okay as a whole, mainly thanks to experienced but not that fast defenders Juhani Ojala,34, and Raitala, 35. The latter played big minutes at HJK last season but was oddly let go after the season – probably because of some petty/silly arguments with the HJK CEO, Aki Riihilahti.. Let's also remember that HJK defeated Gnistan in a Liiga Cup (League Cup) game 2-1 at a neutral location, Talin Jalkapallohalli, in February. In this game Gnistan were very aggressive – I would even say "suicidal" - which led to HJK getting a very big number of promising scoring chances. Gnistan, too, had their chances but were never close to getting even a draw.. They simply played too aggressive football – taking into account their limitations.. They would need a lot of luck to defeat HJK here..
I want to highlight that the home advantage here is low as it is a Helsinki derby and hundreds of loud and demanding HJK fans, especially the "ultras" will be cheering for HJK at Mustapekka Areena. Rather interestingly, Gnistan's most loud fans are usually their own juniors (10-13 years old) – who are no match to HJK fans – the loudest in Veikkausliiga! The match is played on artificial turf, pretty similar to the one at HJK's home stadium, Bolt Arena. Before crushing SJK HJK were very disappointing against AC Oulu away from home. They lost 0-1 – despite 65% ball possession. HJK, however, recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. No, it was not an acceptable performance from HJK by any means but the pitch – natural grass – was in poor form which affected HJK a lot! The grass was pretty long and HJK could not pass the ball in a normal way.. HJK were mercilessly mocked for this defeat in the Finnish media but the bookies have seemingly overreacted to this embarrassing loss! Before this HJK's performance was not great but still satisfactory - it was a 1-1 draw against Ilves - in 4th place at the moment - at Bolt Arena in Helsinki. HJK did record more goal attempts, shots on target, shots off target, attacks and dangerous attacks in this match. I want to highlight that HJK operated well below their normal level in this match - Ilves, on the other hand, played at their average level in this clash..
Gnistan were lame in their last match, losing to Ekenäs IF on the road 0-1 as clear favourites – priced around 2.10 to win by the bookies. Ekenäs, another newly promoted team, are the worst team in Veikkausliiga and the win over Gnistan was their first in Veikkausliiga this season. The match was balanced as a whole – the ball possession was 49-51% and the hosts recorded more attacks. Gnistan had one more shot on target. Before this Gnistan played okay in Mariehamn, Åland Islands. It was a 1-1 draw after a balanced clash. Both teams had three shots on goal. Lastly, I want to mention that this is a true "David versus Goliath" clash in terms of financial resources and players' estimated total market value.. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the HJK squad is valued at some 7.30 million euros – which is too low in my expert opinion. Some 9.50 would be a more realistic number. Last season they deservedly beat the Romanian Champions from the 2022-2023 season, Farul Constanta 3-2 on aggregate in the Conference League qualification final round. In the autumn of 2022 HJK were close to taking a point from Jose Muorinho's AS Roma (!) at Bolt Arena in the Europa League but lost 1-2 after a very questionable VAR decision. On paper HJK are only slightly worse than in 2022! Gnistan are known as a "kyläseura" - a "village club" in English here in Finland as their financial resources are small and Mustapekka Areena is a very modest "stadium" even by Finnish standards. Their squad is valued at only some 2.30 million which is still a little too high.. HJK desperately need the three points here and will probably even take some risks if the score is level late into the second half..
GOOD LUCK and thanks to my loyal fans!
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
Gnistan Helsinki VS HJK Helsinki
北京时间周三晚，在赫尔辛基Oulunkylä的穆斯塔佩卡竞技场举行的芬兰足球比赛中，吉尔吉斯斯坦和jk展开了激烈的较量。当然，我会亲自去体育场!到目前为止，在芬兰足球的第一级联赛中，jk和Gnistan分别参加了12场和11场比赛。遗憾的是，按照欧洲的标准来看，维库斯利加的水平非常低。事实上，赫尔辛基HJK在2022-2023赛季获得了欧联杯小组赛的资格，并在2021-2022赛季获得了欧洲联盟联赛小组赛的资格，以及上赛季的资格，但这并不能改变这一事实。近年来，其他芬兰俱乐部在欧足联的俱乐部比赛资格赛中表现不佳。近年来，维克考斯利加的水平一直在上升。这个联赛中的大多数球队都有很好的组织和战术，但踢得很慢，很无聊，也很容易预测。不过，与其他许多俱乐部相比，吉斯坦的踢球风格更现代、更活跃。他们的主教练尤西Leppälahti似乎讨厌“停车”。被动的防守足球。他希望他的球队压迫对手的防守——即使这种战术在最大化结果方面可能不是最好的。hkk可以以各种方式踢球，但在面对劣势对手时可能会有58-63%的控球率。由于卡内洛普洛斯仍然缺阵，我相信jk队长卢卡斯·灵曼和汉斯·萨尔佩将统治中场，把球传给前锋普莱格、奥利桑亚和霍斯蒂卡。萨佩还没有达到他的最佳状态，但他曾经在德甲踢过球。此外，21岁的托皮·凯斯基宁(Topi Keskinen)很可能是这个联盟中最快的球员，边锋兼中场是hkk对抗任何球队的武器!他很可能很快就会以150万至200万欧元的价格被卖到一家更大的俱乐部。这是一个非常高的数字，以Veikkausliiga的标准!
作为一名芬兰职业足球投注者，我非常了解这个联赛，长期的结果也很好!此外，我们现在已经赢得了最近六次选择中的五次，投注于维科斯利加!我也贴出了另外两场维克考斯利加比赛的选段!我和我的球迷可以期待一场比联盟平均水平略高的比赛。这应该是一场非常有趣的比赛——除非Gnistan的老板Leppälahti选择了一个防守战术——这是非常不可能的。有时，格尼斯坦试图表现得很有侵略性——但就是做不到——上次两队在5月22日的博尔特竞技场发生争执。hkk以1-0轻松获胜。吉尼斯坦只有1次射门，而hkk有4次射门。此外，在这场比赛中，Gnistan的预期进球(xG)很少。我想强调的是，当比赛进行的时候，HJK的状态很差，信心也很低。他们的主教练，西班牙人费兰·西比拉刚刚被解雇，取而代之的是56岁的托尼·“托克”·科尔基库纳斯。hkk的情况至少在球场外也是一团糟。事实上，正式的主教练是奥西·维尔塔，而不是西比拉，因为西比拉没有必要的(担任主教练)欧足联职业执照!jk的管理层，特别是Vesa Mäki，真的搞砸了，在签下Sibila的时候没有意识到这一点!令几乎所有jk粉丝高兴的是，Mäki也在5月份被解雇。更有趣的是，上赛季7月托尼·科尔基库纳斯取代了托尼·科斯凯拉(!)，当时香港打得很糟糕——尤其是他们的进攻非常蹩脚。托克最终带领他的球队连续第4次获得维甲联赛冠军，并如前所述，进入了联盟联赛的小组赛阶段!在我看来，这是一个很好的成就!不，就战术技巧而言，他不是一个精英教练——即使以芬兰的标准来看也是如此——但他是一个伟大的领导者，并且似乎——与上赛季相似——在球队内部创造了一种积极、轻松的氛围!这是非常重要的，因为HJK在整个赛季初期都是一个巨大的失望。奥西·维尔塔，一个年轻而热情的家伙，现在是助理教练，擅长组织和提高沪江的进攻。这一直是Toke的弱点。在过去，他主要效力于一些非常不受欢迎的俱乐部，比如拉赫蒂和MyPa(现在效力于低水平球队)，而且阵容有限。此外，前切尔西和伯明翰(当时效力于英超联赛)以及芬兰国家队前锋弗塞尔也在几天前加入了jk的教练团队。他是一个非常缺乏经验的教练，但我相信他能够提高沪江的进攻!他是一个可爱而有魅力的家伙，受到大多数jk粉丝的喜爱。
hkk是最重要的
本赛季的新球员是英国人卢克·普兰格，他本赛季从水晶宫(一支不错的英超球队)租借到球队。他还没有在世界上最好的联赛中出场，但却坐在水晶宫的替补席上，这反映了他的巨大潜力!在维克考斯利加，他应该是一名明星。不，他还没有达到对HJK的(高)期望，但在上一场比赛中，他在20分钟内进了3个球!这对卢克来说无疑是一个巨大的安慰和信心的提升!上周五，在0-1逆转的情况下，hkk主场4-1击败了目前排名第六的危险球队SJK。他们理应得到三分，但距离最佳状态还有很大差距。hkk以19分排名第三。他们进了19球，丢了13球。是的，这个选择- HJK赢-是基于HJK的潜力-和Gnistan在*市场上的弱点/高估。坦白地说，赛季初的数据并不能证明以目前1.70的*赌上HJK是合理的。根据我深入的，基于数据的分析，加上预期的阵容，他们获胜的机会是64-65%。从纯粹的角度来看，hkk是芬兰最好的球队，因为他们已经将近五年了!另一方面，Gnistan本赛季从Ykkönen(现在被称为Ykkösliiga)提升到这个级别。上赛季他们在Ykkönen联赛中排名第二，但在去年秋天，一支优秀的球队Honka破产后，他们获得了在维克考斯利加踢球的机会。毫无疑问，斯坦队的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好，但结果是，他们在*市场上变得太热门了。我需要提到的是，在赛季开始之前，他们被广泛评为联盟第10或第11强的球队。到目前为止，他们的许多球员，尤其是前锋J.拉托宁的表现都超出了正常水平。拉托宁已经不是一个非常年轻的球员了，他以前从未在维克考斯利加取得过突破，并且在xG方面打进了比他应该打进的更多的球。格尼斯坦拿到了12分，在这个联赛中排名第8，总共有12家俱乐部。他们的期望点数(xPTS)是10.03。他们已经进了14个球，但实际上他们缺乏这种水平的进攻质量!他们的预期进球数(xG)只有11.46个。更有趣的是，四月份在塔梅兰球场，他们在对阵维考斯利加最好的球队之一伊尔维斯的比赛中进了6个球，而在比赛中只进了1.40个球。吉尔吉斯斯坦的防守总体上还不错，这主要要归功于经验丰富但速度不那么快的两名后卫——34岁的尤哈尼·奥加拉和35岁的拉伊塔拉。后者上赛季在香港打了很多时间，但奇怪的是，赛季结束后被解雇了——可能是因为和香港首席执行官阿基·里希拉赫蒂发生了一些琐碎/愚蠢的争论。让我们也记住，今年2月，在中立地Talin Jalkapallohalli的联赛杯比赛中，hkk以2比1击败了Gnistan。在这场比赛中，格尼斯坦非常有侵略性——我甚至会说“自杀”——这导致了jk获得了很多有希望的得分机会。吉尔吉斯斯坦也有机会，但从未接近平局。考虑到他们的局限性，他们踢得太激进了。他们需要很多运气才能打败香港。我想强调的是，主场优势很低，因为这是一场赫尔辛基德比，成百上千的喧闹和苛刻的HJK球迷，尤其是“超级”球迷将在穆斯塔佩卡竞技场为HJK加油。更有趣的是，最大声的球迷通常是他们自己的青少年(10-13岁)，他们不是jk球迷的对手，jk球迷是维克考斯利加最大声的!比赛在人造草皮上进行，与香港皇家大学的主场博尔特竞技场非常相似。在击败SJK之前，hkk在客场对阵AC奥卢的比赛非常令人失望。尽管控球率达到65%，他们还是0-1输了。然而，hkk的进球次数、射门次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。不，无论如何，这都不是一个可以接受的表现，但是球场——天然草地——状态不佳，这对jk影响很大!球场的草很长，洪书豪无法正常传球。芬兰媒体无情地嘲笑了hkk的失败，但*公司似乎对这场尴尬的失利反应过度了!在此之前，HJK的表现不是很好，但仍然令人满意——在赫尔辛基博尔特竞技场，他们1-1战平了目前排名第四的伊尔维斯。在这场比赛中，hkk的进球次数、射正、射偏、进攻和危险进攻都有所增加。我想强调的是，HJK在这场比赛中的表现远远低于他们的正常水平——另一方面，伊尔维斯在这场比赛中发挥了他们的平均水平
睫毛. .格尼斯坦在上一场比赛中表现不佳，在客场0-1输给了Ekenäs IF，他们显然是夺冠热门——*公司开出的*在2.10左右。另一支新晋球队Ekenäs是维考斯利加最差的球队，在本赛季的维考斯利加比赛中首次战胜了格尼斯坦。比赛总体上是平衡的——控球率是49比51%，主队的进攻次数更多。格尼斯坦又射正了一次。在此之前，Gnistan在Mariehamn， Åland Islands玩得还不错。在一场势均力敌的交锋之后，双方以1比1战平。两队都有三次射门。最后，我想说的是，就财政资源和玩家估计的总市场价值而言，这是一场真正的“大卫与歌利亚”之战。事实上，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，这支球队的价值约为730万欧元——在我看来，这个数字太低了。大约9.50是一个更现实的数字。上个赛季，他们在东部联赛资格赛最后一轮中以总比分3-2击败了2022-2023赛季的罗马尼亚冠军法鲁尔·康斯坦塔，当之无愧。2022年秋，在博尔特竞技场的欧联杯比赛中，皇马差点从穆里尼奥的罗马手中拿到一分，但在一个非常可疑的VAR判罚后，他们以1比2输掉了比赛。理论上，香港只比2022年稍微差一点!Gnistan在芬兰被称为“kyläseura”——英语中的“乡村俱乐部”，因为他们的财政资源很少，穆斯塔佩卡竞技场即使按照芬兰的标准也是一个非常普通的“体育场”。他们的球队价值只有230万英镑，仍然有点高。hkk迫切需要三分，如果下半场比分持平，他们可能会冒一些风险。
祝你好运，并感谢我的忠实粉丝!
