Sporting CP vs Porto
Sporting CP welcome Porto for this Liga Portugal round 20 clash at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, the capital of this country with a great football culture. This league is not among the top-4 in Europe but is still of high level. We can expect an entertaining and classy encounter between these two great teams – especially by Liga Portugal standards. Both teams have even done quite well in the Champions League in recent years. However, also in this top-level competition we have been able to see that Porto are a clearly stronger team. Porto even won Group B with 12 points to their account! Their goal difference was excellent – 12:7. The big German team, Bayern Leverkusen and a successful, one could say even ”iconic” Spanish team, Atletico Madrid, Spanish champions from 2021, only recorded five points. In the final group phase match Porto, totally deservedly, beat Atletico 2-1 at home as underdogs according to the bookies. This was one of the many matches where Porto have clearly been undervalued on the betting market. Sporting CP, on the other hand, did not qualify for the playoffs. They grabbed just seven points and had a score difference of 8:9. They will continue their international campaign in the Europa League 1/16 finals soon. What a disappointment it must be.. Frankfurt, a team that finished in 11th place last season in the Bundesliga - but won the Europa League - be it with some luck – finished in second place. Tottenham topped the group with 11 points. I also want to mention that Porto beat the hosts on the 28th of last month at the League cup final at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, a neutral location, 2-0. They also defeated Sporting CP on the 20th of August 2022 at home 3-0 after creating many more goal attempts 16-8 and one more shots on goal than the Sporting CP – 5-4. Moreover, the hosts have not beaten Porto in the latest seven games! We must give this record enough emphasis. Last time they beat Porto was in a cup game - in January 2021! The fonal score was 2-1. Porto currently occupy the 2nd place in Liga Portugal with 45 points to their account – eight points and one game less played than the very strong Benfica. However, I think the difference in class between Benfica and Porto is smaller than the league table would illustrate and Porto might lift the trophy in May!
Porto are in amazing form having won eight games in a row! Moreover, they have not lost any of their recent 20(!) matches! Rather unsurprisingly they are sky-high in confidence and have an excellent coach, S. Conceicao. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 47.34 and have a goal difference of 45:11. Their defense has a super-good stricture and the defenders are individually skilled and make very few mistakes. Porto have not allowed a single goal in their latest six games! The number of goals allowed – 11- is the lowest number in Liga Portugal. In this area of the game Porto have a very clear edge over the hosts who have conceded 19 goals. Sporting CP cannot match the visitors offensively either – they have netted the ball 39 times so far in this league but their number of expected goals is just 36.98. They are in pretty good form though, winning four of their latest seven games. In their most recent match they beat Rio Ave as massive favorites according to the bookies – priced around 1.35 to win. They did deserve the win but I was not impressed by their performance against a somewhat lowly opponent. Sporting CP only recorded one shot on goal in this clash but did defend well though. Before this they beat a strong team, Braga, 5-0 at home, priced around 1.85-1.90 to win by the bookies. Yes, they did deserve to win but the final score is still misleading. Braga's S. Niakate was sent off in the 49th minute which seemed to kill the visitors' will to fight 100%.. The score was 2-0 at this point. Porto, on the other hand, were also not at their best on the 8th of this month but still beat Academico Viseu 1-0 away from home in a cup game. However, we need to realize that Conceicao made five changes to his squad for their cup win over Academico Viseu. Goalkeeper Diogo Costa and top scorer Mehdi Taremi were left on the bench against the lower-league opponent, but both are expected to return here.The visitors are only extremely marginal favorites on the betting market at the time of writing this analysis early Saturday morning Beijing time, odds on them to win are around 2.70 – way too high even taking the significant home advantage into account. Betting on Porto with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option is a very solid choice. The chance of winning is 72%! Both teams have a very good situation in terms of absentees. The hosts are missing just D. Bragance who has a knee injury. As for Porto, no absentees have been listed at this point but Gabriel Veron's situation is questionable as he has been suffering from a knee injury.
