LOSC Lille VS Real Madrid
Lille challenge Real Madrid in this UEFA Champions League league phase round 2 battle at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the highest of UEFA's three club competitions. Visitors are the reigning champions of Spain – and Europe as they won the Champions League last season. Especially the latter probably still affects their odds quite a lot here.. Let's not forget that Real Madrid had to fight hard to eliminate Leipzig as very clear favourites, had some luck on their side against Man City in terms of xG in the next round of Playoffs and beat Bayern Munich through two very late goals in the 2nd leg after pretty balanced two legs combined. In the final they were in trouble against Dortmund in the first half but deserved to win the game in the end. Of course we could say that "this is what Real Madrid do – win (Champions League) titles. Indeed, they have won many in the last 10 years! However, my point is that they are one of the big teams in Europe and can win this league again but are not a "dominant, unstoppable force" in the Champions League, or even in the LaLiga, on the road in particular.. They must be one of the teams with the most fans and media coverage globally – many people love to bet on them to win which is reflected in their odds. .They are hardly ever undervalued – and are pretty often overvalued on the betting market.. This game is undoubtedly one of those games! Real will be without Alaba, Ceballos, Courtois (one of the best goalkeepers in the world), Diaz and Kylian Mbappe. Kylian is one of the best strikers in the world, despite not having the best early season with Real.. Yes, Real might play slightly better as a team without him but missing him still hurts Real's goal scoring potential a lot! This had a big effect especially in handicap betting.. Yes, of course Real are the stronger team here but odds of around 1.60 away from home, with all the absentees - against a decent opponent - is still too low. I see Lille having a big chance of avoiding losing by a margin of more than a goal. In fact, Real have won only one of the four LaLiga games away from home this season. Moreover, they have won just one their last six games on the road. They lost two friendly games in the summer at a neutral location – against AC Milan and Barcelona.
Real are currently in 2nd place in the LaLiga with 18 points in their pocket. They have scored 17 goals and have allowed six goals. Barcelona, the current leaders, have scored 25 goals already. Real's number of expected points (xPTS) is 16.33, their number of expected goals scored (xG) is 17.67 and expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is 7.87. On paper (with Mbappe) they are probably the best team in the world but their teamplay has not been great so far.. They are expected to improve as the season progresses though.. Carlo Ancelotti is, after all, a world-class manager. Even so, in the midfield missing the retired Toni Kroos, hurts them even more than I would have anticipated before the season kicked off. Luka Modric, a Real Madrid legend, is almost 40 years old, and has played surprisingly much.. The Croatian still, of course, has the skill to pass the ball very well but is, however, way past his prime already and struggles to keep up with the very high tempo at top level.. In their last game Real faced Atletico Madrid away from home and it was a high-level clash, as expected. Both teams had 12 goal attempts and four shots on goal. Atletico generated 1.22 in xG - Real managed 0.86. Before this Real beat a lowly team, Alaves, 3-2 at home as huge favourites, priced around 1.15 to win. However, the visitors even had two more goal attempts! Real had close to 70% ball possession and generated more in xG - 1.56-0.87 to be precise. Despite winning they failed to really impress me and were definitely overvalued on the betting market. In the Champions League opening round Real beat Stuttgart, German team, 3-1 at home. They were priced around 1.30 but the game was, very surprisingly, rather balanced as a whole.. Real had only two more goal attempts and one more shot on goal. The Germans had more shots off goal and attacks - 106-86. Real generated only a little more in xG – 2.56-2.21. Rudiger scored the 2-1 goal only in the 83rd minute. Stuttgart played very well despite losing in the end but Real's performance was only mediocre as a whole. Their individual skill was the key to a hard-fought victory..
Lille have started the season relatively well and are in 5th place in the French Ligue 1 with 10 points after six games. Their number of xPTS is 12.02. They have scored 11 goals (xG 12.89) and have conceded seven goals (xGA 7.86). They lost their first Champions League game 0-2 to a very strong team, Sporting CP, on the road as big underdogs, priced around 6.00 to win. Lille were not terrible but could, in all honesty, not do much offensively.. Sporting were simply too strong in front of their fans. This was no surprise - last season Sporting won all 17 home games in Liga Portugal! In front of their loud fans Lille usually do much better than away from home. They have lost just one of their last six home games. This defeat came about a month ago against the dominant team in France, PSG, 1-3 very clear underdogs. PSG were the better team but not by a huge margin. Lille had eight goal attempts, PSG managed 11. The xG numbers were 2.22-1.53 in PSG's favour. In their last game Lille crushed Le Havre 4-0 on the road after recording almost 20 goal attempts and a stunning 4.07 in xG. It was an awesome performance as a whole! Le Havre's xG number was just 0.43..
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里尔VS皇家马德里
北京时间周四凌晨，里尔将在维伦纽夫的皮埃尔-莫罗伊球场与皇家马德里进行欧冠联赛第二轮的比赛。这是欧足联三场俱乐部比赛中最高的。客队是西班牙和欧洲的卫冕冠军，因为他们上赛季赢得了欧洲冠军联赛。特别是后者可能仍然会影响他们在这里的胜算。让我们不要忘记皇家马德里必须努力淘汰莱比锡作为非常明显的热门，在季后赛下一轮对阵曼城的比赛中，他们在xG方面有一些运气，并且在第二回合比赛中通过两个非常接近的进球击败拜仁慕尼黑。在决赛中，他们在对阵多特蒙德的上半场遇到了麻烦，但最终他们应该赢得比赛。当然，我们可以说“这就是皇马所做的——赢得(欧冠)冠军。”事实上，他们在过去的10年里赢得了很多奖项!然而，我的观点是，他们是欧洲的豪门之一，可以再次赢得这个联赛，但不是一个“统治，不可阻挡的力量”在欧冠，甚至在西甲，特别是在客场…他们肯定是全球拥有最多球迷和媒体报道的球队之一——许多人喜欢赌他们赢，这反映在他们的*上。他们几乎从未被低估——在*市场上往往被高估。这款游戏无疑就是其中之一!皇马将失去阿拉巴、塞巴略斯、库尔图瓦(世界上最好的门将之一)、迪亚兹和姆巴佩。基利安是世界上最好的前锋之一，尽管他在皇马的早期赛季表现不佳。是的，皇马在没有他的情况下可能会踢得稍微好一点，但失去他仍然会严重影响皇马的进球潜力!这产生了很大的影响，尤其是在障碍赌博中。是的，皇马当然是这里更强的球队，但是在客场的*大约是1.60，加上所有的缺阵球员——面对一个不错的对手——仍然太低了。我认为里尔有很大的机会避免以超过一球的差距输球。事实上，皇马本赛季在西甲的四场客场比赛中只赢了一场。此外，他们在过去的六场客场比赛中只赢了一场。他们在夏天输掉了两场友谊赛，分别是对AC米兰和巴塞罗那。
皇马目前在西甲联赛中以18分排名第二。他们进了17球，丢了6球。目前领先的巴塞罗那已经进了25个球。皇马的预期得分(xPTS)为16.33，预期进球数(xG)为17.67，预期失球数(xGA)为7.87。理论上(加上姆巴佩)他们可能是世界上最好的球队，但是他们的团队合作到目前为止还不是很好。不过，随着赛季的进行，他们有望取得进步。毕竟，安切洛蒂是一位世界级的教练。即便如此，在中场失去了退役的托尼·克罗斯，这对他们的伤害甚至超过了我在赛季开始前的预期。卢卡·莫德里奇，皇马的传奇人物，年近40岁，却踢得出奇的多……当然，克罗地亚人仍然有很好的传球技巧，但是，他的巅峰时代已经过去了，他还在努力跟上高水平的比赛节奏。在他们的最后一场比赛中，皇马在客场面对马德里竞技，这是一场高水平的比赛，正如所料。两队都有12次进球尝试和4次射门。马竞在g赛季的进球数为1.22，皇马为0.86。在此之前，皇马在主场以3-2击败了实力较弱的球队阿拉维斯，这是一个巨大的热门球队，胜率约为1.15英镑。然而，客队甚至还有两次射门机会!皇马的控球率接近70%，在xG比赛中创造了更多的进球——准确地说是1.56-0.87。尽管赢了，但他们并没有给我留下深刻的印象，而且在*市场上肯定被高估了。在欧冠揭幕战中，皇马主场3-1击败德国球队斯图加特。它们的定价在1.30左右，但令人惊讶的是，游戏整体上相当平衡。皇马只有两次进球尝试和一次射门。德国队有更多的射门和进攻——106比86。Real在xG - 2.56-2.21中只产生了一点点。吕迪格在第83分钟打进了2-1的进球。斯图加特踢得很好，尽管最后输掉了比赛，但皇马的整体表现平平。他们的个人技术是来之不易的胜利的关键。
里尔本赛季开局不错，六场比赛后积10分排名法甲第五。它们的xPTS数是12.02。他们进了11球(xG 12.89)，丢了7球
进球(xGA 7.86)。他们的第一场欧冠比赛0-2输给了一个非常强大的球队，体育CP，作为一个大的弱者，在客场，价格在6.00左右获胜。里尔并不可怕，但老实说，也没有什么进攻性的举动。在他们的球迷面前，体育实在是太强大了。这一点也不奇怪——上赛季葡萄牙竞技赢得了葡萄牙联赛的全部17场主场比赛!在喧闹的球迷面前，里尔的表现通常比客场要好得多。他们在最近的六场主场比赛中只输了一场。这场失利发生在大约一个月前，对手是法国的霸主巴黎圣日耳曼，1-3明显处于劣势。巴黎圣日耳曼是一支更好的球队，但差距并不大。里尔有8次进球，巴黎圣日耳曼有11次。xG值为2.22-1.53，对PSG有利。在上一场比赛中，里尔队在客场以4比0大胜勒阿弗尔队，他们有近20次进球和惊人的4.07进球。这是一个令人敬畏的表演作为一个整体!勒阿弗尔的xG值仅为0.43。