We know quite a lot about Bayern and their class, do we not? They are superb this season again, and the performance data aligns well with the 33 points after 13 rounds played with a gD of 41-10 which is huge. Except that their expected goals against is even a few goals less! A few defensive absentees will not change that much. My view:
Bo Henriksen's Mainz is currently ninth in the Bundesliga after collecting 19 points from 13 games, with a record of 5-4-4 and a goal difference of 23-18. Werder Bremen (19) is tied for tenth on points. Mönchengladbach (18) is one point behind in 11th. Stuttgart (20) is one point ahead in eighth place.
Mainz lost their previous game 3-4 to Wolfsburg at the Volkswagen Arena last Sunday, ending the hosts' three-game winning streak, but as the xG shows it was another excellent performance, at least attacking-wise!
Mainz's defense line is practically a fixed three-man affair and Stefan Bell, Dominik Kohr and Maxim Leitsch. In the midfield, Danny da Costa will not be seen in action until January, so Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano will take care the center of the midfield. With Gabriel Vidovic on the bench for Mainz until February, Henriksen will have to choose between Burkardt, Nebel, and Jae-sung Lee.
Possible starting lineup for Mainz (T3-4-2-1): Zentner; Kohr, Bell, Leitsch; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt.
In their previous league game, Die Roten beat Heidenheim 4-2 at the Allianz Arena last Saturday, thus taking a bounce back from their home defeat to Leverkusen (0-1) in the DFB Pokal quarter-finals a few days earlier.
Apart from the last two matches it is remarkable how little xG they concede, in 5 matches in a row they conceded 0 goals, and also very few quality shots against them. This is also the question of today, can they deal with the Mainz attack?
In the sixth round of the Champions League, Bayern defeated Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 at the Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen last Tuesday. xG agrees with this scoreline well.
Bayern, who played their third game without injured striker Harry Kane, scored goals from Konrad Laimer, Thomas Müller, Musiala once and Michael Olise, who finished twice.
Daniel Peretz will probably start in goal for Bayern, as Sven Ulreich is on the sidelines for personal reasons and Manuel Neuer is out with a side injury. The visitors' defense is practically self-evident, with Laimer, Upamecano, Kim Min-jae and Raphael Guerreiro starting, while Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito and Josip Stanisic are unavailable. With Kingsley Coman and Kane injured, the four forwards in the starting lineup are practically Musiala, Müller, Olise and Sane.
Bayern's possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Sane; Müller.
I am not saying that Bayern can not handle the absences, but yet, Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in 12 games and it is a massive number. On the other hand, Mainz has been really good all season, especially at home in most games. Yes, they lost to Bayern in the Cup in October by 0-4 with a hat trick of Musiala. However, Mainz bounced back in the Bundesliga the following week by comfortably beating Borussia Dortmund by 3-1, so they can do it!
Bayern are big favourites and a super team also without Kane and Neuer, but the odds for 1X are simply too high not to take.
Good luck!
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
我们很了解拜仁和他们的水平，不是吗？他们本赛季再次表现出色，表现数据与13轮比赛后的33分相吻合，gD为41-10，这是一个巨大的数字。除了他们的预期进球甚至少了几个球！一些防守缺阵不会有太大的改变。我的观点:
博·亨里克森的美因茨在13场比赛中得到19分，目前排名德甲第九，战绩为5胜4负，净胜球为23胜18负。云达不莱梅（19）积分并列第十。Mönchengladbach（18）落后一分排在第11位。排名第8的斯图加特（20）领先1分。
上周日，美因茨在大众球场以3比4输给了沃尔夫斯堡，结束了东道主的三连胜，但正如xG所展示的那样，这是另一场出色的表现，至少在进攻方面！
美因茨的防线实际上是一个固定的三人组合，斯特凡·贝尔，多米尼克·科尔和马克西姆·莱奇。在中场，丹尼-达-科斯塔要到明年1月才会出现在比赛中，所以阿米里和佐野开秀将负责中场的中心位置。由于维多维奇在2月份之前都将在美因茨的替补席上，亨里克森将不得不在伯卡尔特、内贝尔和李在成之间做出选择。
美因茨可能的首发阵容（3-4-2-1）：岑特纳；Kohr, Bell, Leitsch；Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene；Nebel,李;Burkardt。
在上一场联赛中，罗滕队上周六在安联球场以4比2击败了海登海姆队，从而从几天前在德甲1 / 4决赛中主场0比1输给勒沃库森的失利中恢复了元气。
除了最近两场比赛，值得注意的是他们丢了很少的球，在连续5场比赛中他们丢了0球，也很少有高质量的射门。这也是今天的问题，他们能应对美因茨的袭击吗？
上周二，在盖尔森基兴维尔廷斯球场举行的欧冠第6轮比赛中，拜仁以5比1击败顿涅茨克矿工队。xG很同意这个分数。
拜仁在没有受伤前锋哈里·凯恩的情况下进行了第三场比赛，康拉德·莱默、托马斯·米<e:1>勒、穆西亚拉和迈克尔·奥利斯分别打进1球和2球。
丹尼尔·佩雷兹可能会在拜仁首发，因为斯文·乌尔赖希因个人原因缺阵，而曼努埃尔·诺伊尔也因侧伤缺阵。客队的防守几乎是不言自明的，莱默、乌帕梅卡诺、金珉在和格雷罗首发，而戴维斯、伊藤博木和斯坦尼西奇缺阵。由于科曼和凯恩的受伤，首发阵容中的四名前锋实际上是穆西亚拉、米<e:1>勒、奥利斯和萨内。
拜仁可能的首发阵容（4-2-3-1）：佩雷茨；莱默、乌帕梅卡诺、金、格雷罗；Kimmich Pavlovic;奥利斯，穆西亚拉，萨内；穆勒。
我并不是说拜仁无法应对缺阵，但是哈里·凯恩在12场比赛中打进了14球，这是一个巨大的数字。另一方面，美因茨整个赛季都表现得很好，尤其是在主场的大多数比赛中。是的，他们在10月份的杯赛上0-4输给了拜仁，穆西亚拉上演了帽子戏法。然而，美因茨在接下来的一周在德甲联赛中反弹，以3-1轻松击败多特蒙德，所以他们可以做到！
拜仁是大热门，也是一支没有凯恩和诺伊尔的超级球队，但1X的几率实在太高了。
好运！
