Benfica and Braga lock horns in this Portuguese League Cup semi-final battle at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria (neural location) early Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the Liga Portugal. This league is of very good quality by European standards – but still clearly worse than the top-5 leagues.. Football fans and serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of great quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity! In the Liga Portugal we have won six consecutive picks. In the Portuguese League Cup we have won 8/11 last picks! Benfica are currently in 3rd place in the Liga Portugal standings. They have taken a total of 38 fine points! There is, in my sophisticated power ranking, not much between Sporting CP, Porto and Benfica – the top-3 teams. This rating/ranking reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding "special" factors – such as motivation and fatigue - caused by a tough schedule.. Benfica have scored a total of 38 goals in 17 Liga Portugal games but their number of expected goals (xG) per game is somewhat smaller though.. They have a lot of individual skill in offense - and a solid offensive structure but also have several offensive variations/strategies in-play. The Benfica defence is solid – without any obvious weaknesses. Indeed, they have conceded only 11 goals in Liga Portugal. Yes, Braga are a good team but still far from the level of Benfica in terms of pure class! They are in 4th place with a decent 31 points to their account. Their score difference is 30:19. However, their number of xG per game is "only " 1.45 and expected goal allowed (xGA) per match is 1.22. They simply cannot match Benfica in any area of the game!
Let's also not forget that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Benfica are the bigger team here – by a very big margin! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of close to 350 million euros! This is, in my expert opinion, more or less correct.. The Braga squad, on the other hand, is valued at approximately 130 million, which is marginally too high.. Benfica undoubtedly deserve to be even bigger favourites than the bookies believe here! We will place a bet on them to eliminate Benfica in the 90 minutes of play. Both teams' head coaches doing some squad rotating would not be a surprise at all here but Benfica have a very deep squad, full of promising talented players – eager to prove their skills to the coach! Yes, Braga beat Benfica 2-1 on the road only four days ago. I strongly believe that this win affects the odds too much here.. Yes, Braga did play better than expected – whereas Benfica were not at their best – but the visitors still definitely did not deserve the three points! Indeed, Benfica had 59.30% ball possession and also recorded hugely more goal attempts – 21-6. They also had many more shots on goal, shots off target and corner kicks – 8-2. The xG numbers were 1.89-0.55. Before this Braga were priced around 1.50 to beat Casa Pia at home but lost -1-2 after a disappointing performance! Braga recorded two more shots on goal but Casa Pia recorded one more big scoring chance – 2-1. The xG numbers were very balanced – 1.34-1.34 to be precise. In round 16 Benfica, on the other hand, lost to Sporting CP 0-1 away from home as underdogs on the betting market. Benfica had 55.20% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal (9-3) and corner kicks – 8-4. The hosts had more shots on target – both teams had two big scoring chances. Before these two defeats Benfica were unbeaten in nine consecutive matches, winning 7/9! In round 15 Benfica swept past Estoril at home – 3-0 was the final score. No, their xG was not (quite) 3.00 but the visitors still had no real chance to take even a point from this game.. Before this Benfica were very strong – especially defensively. Indeed, they beat Nacional in the island of Madeira 2-0. The hosts generated only a very low 0.17 in xG. Benfica recorded many more shots on goal (7-1), goal attempts (16-5), shots off target and big scoring chances – 4-0!
