I am on a run of 10 losses out of 10 games. Keep that in mind if you wish to follow! Nevertheless, a few free words here as this one looks tasty. Let us start with a look at the actual table and with xG-data as well:
Yes, Marseille is 7 points ahead, but in the column far right you can see the expected points, which are equal!
Nice and Marseille will clash in the “Mediterranean derby” at the Allianz Riviera on Sunday. Marseille is currently the only team that could still be seen challenging PSG and fighting for the championship. However, this gap is rather big, with a difference of 10 points. Nice’s European games, on the other hand, will be wrapped up next week and now the hosts can focus on the European place battle on home soil.
Nice will start this round in fifth place in Ligue 1. Franck Haise’s team has actually been perfect in France in the first half of the season – the poor performance in Europe is a bit of a mystery. In terms of expected goals, Nice has been a tougher team than Marseille, but as everyone knows, only goals matter in the final stages.
Team news:
The hosts are still waiting for Moïse Bombito to be fit. Instead, Terem Moffi, Jérémie Boga, and Morgan Sanson are on the sidelines. In the Europa League this week, Nice rested the key players, as a place in the next round was already impossible. More rotation is expected in next week's final EL match, the focus is in this derby 100%.
Marseille, coached by Roberto De Zerbi, is not participating in the European games this season, which of course does not hinder achieving their goals in domestic competitions. Marseille has been an incredible run, especially in terms of results, but there has also been some luck involved. Reflecting on this, reaching PSG does not seem very likely.
Team news:
Marseille has a fair number of absences and in addition, Elye Wahi just moved to Frankfurt. Chancel Mbemba, Faris Moumbagna, Valentín Carboni, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Amine Harit, Ismaël Koné and Bamo Meïté are on the sidelines.
The odds setting is pretty much wrong ahead of matchday. If you assume that the teams are same class with optimal lineups, then with these injuries Nice looks like the better team tonight! And in this league the home advantage would give us some 46 % probability to win under these conditions.
The odds make me to choose the home team! Nice are 5-3-0 at home so far, and the away results of Marseille actually give us a perfect idea of how lucky they have been on their travels. Marseille have 8-0-1 away and 24 points which makes them result-wise the best away team in France so far, but when we look at the expected points from those games they have deserved only 14 points, which places them only as 7th. They have been the worse team on on the pitch on most of the away games, but there has been some crazy luck. Look for example for the Lyon-Marseille time chart below. Good luck, have a great Happy New Year!
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
我连续10场比赛输了10场。如果你想跟随，请记住这一点！然而，这里有一些自由的词，因为这个看起来很好吃。让我们先看看实际的表格和xG-data：
是的，马赛领先7分，但在最右边一栏你可以看到预期积分，它们是相等的！
尼斯和马赛将于周日在安联里维埃拉球场上演“地中海德比”。马赛是目前唯一一支可以挑战巴黎圣日耳曼并争夺冠军的球队。然而，这个差距相当大，相差10分。另一方面，尼斯的欧洲比赛将于下周结束，现在东道主可以集中精力在本土争夺欧洲席位。
尼斯将以法甲第五的位置开始本轮比赛。海斯的车队在本赛季的前半段实际上在法国表现得很完美——在欧洲的糟糕表现有点令人费解。就预期进球而言，尼斯一直是一支比马赛更强硬的球队，但众所周知，在最后阶段只有进球才重要。
团队新闻:
东道主仍在等待Moïse Bombito恢复健康。相反，Terem Moffi， jsamrmie Boga和Morgan Sanson都是旁观者。在本周的欧联杯比赛中，尼斯让主力球员休息，因为进入下一轮已经不可能了。更多的轮换预计将在下周的最后一场比赛，重点是在这场德比100%。
由罗伯托·德泽比执教的马赛本赛季没有参加欧洲比赛，这当然不会妨碍他们在国内比赛中实现目标。马赛的表现令人难以置信，尤其是在成绩方面，但也有一些运气的因素。考虑到这一点，进入巴黎圣日耳曼似乎不太可能。
团队新闻:
马赛有相当多的球员缺席，此外，埃尔耶·瓦希刚刚转会到法兰克福。姆本巴、蒙巴尼亚、Valentín卡博尼、孔多比亚、阿米恩·哈里特、Ismaël科奈尔和巴莫Meïté都将缺阵。
比赛日之前的*设定是非常错误的。如果你假设两支球队都是拥有最佳阵容的同一级别球队，那么在这些伤病的情况下，尼斯看起来是今晚更好的球队！在这种情况下，主场优势会给我们带来46%的获胜概率。
几率让我选择主队！尼斯目前在主场5胜3负0负，客场对阵马赛的结果让我们很好地意识到他们在客场有多幸运。马赛客场战绩为8胜0负，得到24分，这使他们成为迄今为止法国最好的客场球队，但当我们从这些比赛的预期积分来看，他们只配得到14分，只排在第7位。在大多数客场比赛中，他们都是表现最差的球队，但他们也有一些疯狂的运气。请看下面里昂-马赛时间图的例子。祝好运，新年快乐！
