Backing PSV to win against Liverpool could be a high-risk, high-reward play, but there’s a legitimate case for it given the circumstances of the match. While Liverpool have been flawless in the Champions League so far, this is a game with little at stake for them, and Arne Slot is expected to rotate heavily. That alone shifts the balance toward the hosts, who remain formidable at the Philips Stadion despite some recent inconsistency.
Liverpool have bigger priorities coming up, with a packed schedule that includes crucial league fixtures, a cup semi-final, and an FA Cup tie. Slot has no incentive to go full strength here, and key names like Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Mohamed Salah could all be rested or left behind entirely. That means a likely backline featuring Jarell Quansah and possibly Wataru Endo as an emergency center-back, which is far from ideal against a team like PSV that thrives on aerial duels and attacking intensity at home. Even though Liverpool’s second-string squad is still high quality, their cohesion and defensive stability will be nowhere near the level of their best XI.
PSV, on the other hand, have been shaky in 2025 but are still one of the most dominant home teams in European football. They have lost just once in their last 53 home games across all competitions, and in Europe, they are unbeaten in 13 straight at the Philips Stadion. Even PSG couldn’t beat them in Eindhoven earlier this season, which shows how tough they are to break down in front of their home fans. Against a weakened Liverpool side with less motivation, PSV should fancy their chances of taking control of the game, especially in the early stages.
Luuk de Jong will be the key player for the hosts, as his aerial ability could cause serious problems for Liverpool’s likely makeshift defense. With 13 goals already this season and 40 in European competitions, he knows how to deliver in big matches. His presence in the box will be a nightmare for a Liverpool side missing their best aerial defenders, and PSV will look to feed him crosses all night. Johan Bakayoko is another player to watch, as his pace and direct dribbling could exploit any lack of chemistry in Liverpool’s rotated backline.
While Liverpool’s dominance in this competition has been undeniable, motivation is a major factor in games like this. They don’t need to win, while PSV still have something to play for in terms of their seeding for the knockout rounds. The Dutch side will be fully engaged, while Liverpool could treat this more like a glorified training session. If Slot’s team selection confirms heavy rotation, the balance of power in this game tilts even further toward the hosts.
This will likely be a more competitive game than most people expect, and PSV’s strong home form, combined with Liverpool’s lack of urgency, makes an upset very possible. A narrow win for PSV feels like the most realistic scenario for me, with De Jong getting on the scoresheet.
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
支持埃因霍温战胜利物浦可能是一种高风险、高回报的做法，但考虑到这场比赛的情况，这样做是合理的。虽然利物浦目前在欧冠联赛中表现完美，但这场比赛对他们来说几乎没有什么危险，阿恩·斯洛特预计会大量轮换。仅这一点就使天平向东道主倾斜，尽管最近出现了一些不稳定，但他们在飞利浦球场仍然令人生畏。
利物浦有更重要的事情要做，他们的赛程排得满满的，包括关键的联赛、杯赛半决赛和足总杯比赛。斯洛特没有动力在这里全力以赴，像阿利松、范迪克、阿诺德和萨拉赫这样的关键球员都有可能休息或完全离开。这意味着后防线可能会有贾雷尔·昆萨和远藤渡鲁作为紧急中卫，这对于像埃因霍温这样在主场依靠空中决斗和进攻强度的球队来说远非理想。尽管利物浦的二线阵容仍然是高水平的，但他们的凝聚力和防守稳定性将远远不及他们最好的11人。
另一方面，埃因霍温在2025年表现不佳，但仍然是欧洲足坛最具统治力的主队之一。在最近的53场主场比赛中，他们只输了一场，在欧洲，他们在飞利浦球场保持了13连胜。即便是巴黎圣日耳曼本赛季早些时候也没能在埃因霍温击败他们，这表明他们在主场球迷面前是多么难以崩溃。面对实力减弱、缺乏动力的利物浦，埃因霍温应该想象自己有机会控制比赛，尤其是在比赛的早期阶段。
德容将是主队的关键球员，因为他的空中能力可能会给利物浦的临时防守带来严重的问题。本赛季他已经进了13个球，其中40个是在欧战中打进的，他知道如何在重大比赛中发挥作用。他在禁区内的存在将是利物浦失去他们最好的空中后卫的噩梦，而埃因霍温整晚都想给他传中。巴卡约科是另一个值得关注的球员，因为他的速度和直接盘带可以利用利物浦后防线的化学反应。
虽然利物浦在这项比赛中的统治地位是不可否认的，但在这样的比赛中，动力是一个主要因素。他们不需要赢球，而埃因霍温在淘汰赛的种子位置上还有一些需要努力的地方。荷兰队会全力以赴，而利物浦则会把这当成一场光荣的训练。如果Slot的球队选择证实了轮换，那么这场比赛的力量平衡将进一步向东道主倾斜。
这可能是一场比大多数人预期的更激烈的比赛，埃因霍温强大的主场状态，加上利物浦的缺乏紧迫感，使得一场意外非常可能。埃因霍温险胜对我来说是最现实的情况，德容也会进球。
