Totally disagree with these odds. Rayo Vallecano should not be the favorite in this relegation clash, while Leganés has good reasons to be favored or at least avoid defeat here. Here’s why.
Leganés is a very competitive team. Although they are newly promoted, they have great tactics, a solid squad that has been playing together for a long time, and a clear understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. They know they lack quality upfront and are not a high-scoring team, so they base their tactics on a strong defense. They have yet to be in the relegation zone this season, which speaks to how well they have been performing.
Very few teams in La Liga have managed to outplay them, and their defeats have only come against strong sides playing in Europe or competing at the top of the table, such as Real Sociedad, Villarreal, Real Madrid, Girona, and Atlético Madrid.
Furthermore, they come into this match full of confidence. They earned a draw away against Athletic in one of the toughest stadiums in the league, defeated Atlético Madrid 1-0 at home, and in the Copa del Rey, they beat Almería (the best team in the second division) to qualify for the quarterfinals. That quarterfinal match will be played in midweek, but the coach has prioritized the league, so rotations are expected in the cup game against Real Madrid rather than in this fixture.
On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano has, in my opinion, been the most overperforming team in the league so far. They currently sit 7th in the table, despite having a squad that is among the bottom five in terms of quality. They have achieved several lucky wins or draws, often scoring late goals or benefiting from fortunate individual actions, but they are not playing well. The best example was their last match against Girona, where they were completely outplayed for 60-65 minutes but managed a quick comeback in the final minutes to win the game.
I still can’t recall a full match where Rayo played at 100%. They always have stretches—sometimes full halves—where they are completely outplayed, yet they somehow manage to come back or score despite being second-best. This isn’t due to their quality, as they don’t have a reliable goalscorer. Winger Jorge de Frutos is their top scorer with just four goals (two of them in the same match), and midfielder Nteka is playing as a makeshift striker. Defensively, they are also far from solid—their only clean sheet in the last 13 matches came against Valencia, one of the league’s worst attacking sides, averaging less than a goal per game.
I expect Leganés to approach this match with much greater motivation. European qualification isn’t a realistic target for Rayo, whereas Leganés desperately need points to stay out of the relegation zone, as they hold only a three-point cushion. They also have the home advantage.
I anticipate a tight game, similar to their previous encounter in September (1-1). Very few chances and goals, both teams prioritizing defense, with Leganés playing with more intensity and motivation, which I believe could be enough to edge out a narrow win in this hard-fought fixture.
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完全不同意这些可能性。巴列卡诺在这场保级大战中不应该是最受欢迎的，而莱甘萨斯有很好的理由受到青睐，或者至少避免在这里失败。这是为什么。
legansamus是一个非常有竞争力的团队。虽然他们是新升班马，但他们拥有出色的战术，一个长期在一起踢球的坚实阵容，并且对自己的优势和劣势都有清晰的认识。他们知道自己的前场缺乏质量，也不是一支得分很高的球队，所以他们的战术建立在强大的防守上。本赛季他们还没有进入降级区，这说明他们的表现有多好。
西甲很少有球队能战胜他们，而且他们的失败只发生在欧洲的强队或竞争榜首的球队，如皇家社会、比利亚雷亚尔、皇家马德里、赫罗纳和马德里航空公司。
此外，他们充满信心地进入这场比赛。他们在联赛中最艰苦的球场之一客场战平了竞技，在主场1-0击败了马德里航空公司，在国王杯中，他们击败了Almería（乙级联赛中最好的球队），进入四分之一决赛。四分之一决赛将在周中进行，但教练已经优先考虑联赛，所以轮换预计将在对阵皇马的杯赛中进行，而不是在这场比赛中。
另一方面，在我看来，巴列卡诺是迄今为止联赛中表现最好的球队。他们目前在积分榜上排名第七，尽管他们的阵容在质量上是倒数五名之一。他们取得了几次幸运的胜利或平局，经常在最后时刻进球或从幸运的个人行动中受益，但他们踢得不好。最好的例子是他们上一场对赫罗纳的比赛，他们在60-65分钟内完全处于劣势，但在最后几分钟迅速反击，赢得了比赛。
我仍然想不起来有哪场比赛是雷奥100%发挥的。他们总是有半场——有时是满半场——在他们完全被击败的时候，尽管他们是第二好，但他们还是设法反击或得分。这并不是因为他们的实力，因为他们没有一个可靠的射手。边锋豪尔赫·德·弗鲁托斯仅以4粒进球（其中2粒是在同一场比赛中）位居射手榜榜首，中场球员恩特卡则充当临时前锋。防守方面，他们也远不够稳固——在过去的13场比赛中，他们唯一一次零封对手是对阵瓦伦西亚，后者是联赛进攻最差的球队之一，场均进球数还不到一个。
我希望莱甘萨梅斯能以更大的动力来迎接这场比赛。对于雷约来说，获得欧洲资格并不是一个现实的目标，而莱甘萨梅斯迫切需要积分来避免降级，因为他们只有三分的缓冲。他们还有主场优势。
我预计这将是一场激烈的比赛，就像9月份的那场比赛（1-1）一样。机会和进球都很少，两支球队都优先考虑防守，莱甘萨梅斯踢得更激烈，更有动力，我相信这足以在这场艰苦的比赛中险胜。
