2025-04-24【意大利杯】国际米兰VSAC米兰预测_分析

I doubt it, in my papers Barcelona will be the treble-winner of the season, but lets talk about Italy for a moment:

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Inter is still chasing a treble, which highlights that Simone Inzaghi’s squad remains, without a doubt, the highest-quality side in Serie A. However, their Champions League victory over favorites Bayern Munich took its toll, as shown in Sunday’s narrow 0–1 league loss to Bologna. The team continues to be without long-term absentees Denzel Dumfries and Piotr Zielinski, and striker Marcus Thuram’s return to the squad also remains uncertain.

AC Milan’s season has been inconsistent. Sergio Conceição’s coaching staff has failed to instill the momentum and consistency needed to keep pace with the league’s top teams. The 0–1 loss to Atalanta in the last round was deserved, although Milan's focus was likely already shifting toward the Coppa Italia semifinal. So far, the most significant achievement under Conceição’s leadership has been remaining unbeaten in three matches against local rivals Inter. Reaching the final—and possibly winning the cup—would bring a positive tone to an otherwise challenging season.

With the first leg ending in a 1–1 draw a month ago, the setup for the decisive second leg is wide open. Inter is clearly the more complete team, but their recent demanding schedule should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, the quality gap makes Inter approximately a 46% favorite to win. In derby matches, the desire to avoid defeat often plays a major role—especially now with a spot in the Coppa Italia final on the line. I estimate the expected goal total to be around 2.80 goals, though a lower-scoring match would not be surprising given the circumstances.

我对此表示怀疑，在我的论文中，巴塞罗那将成为本赛季的三冠王，但让我们暂时谈谈意大利：

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国米仍然在追逐三冠王，这表明西蒙尼·因扎吉的球队毫无疑问仍然是意甲联赛中最具实力的球队。然而，他们在欧冠联赛中战胜热门拜仁慕尼黑的比赛也付出了代价，周日联赛0-1惜败博洛尼亚就证明了这一点。球队仍然没有长期缺阵的邓弗里斯和齐林斯基，前锋图拉姆的回归也不确定。

AC米兰本赛季表现不稳定。塞尔吉奥·孔塞帕拉<e:1>奥的教练组没能给球队注入足够的动力和稳定的状态，以跟上联赛顶级球队的步伐。上一轮0-1输给亚特兰大是理所应当的，尽管米兰的注意力可能已经转向了意大利杯半决赛。到目前为止，在concep<e:1> o的领导下，最重要的成就是在对同城死敌国米的三场比赛中保持不败。进入决赛——并可能赢得奖杯——将为这个充满挑战的赛季带来积极的基调。

一个月前，第一回合以1-1战平，决定性的第二回合的形势十分明朗。国米显然是一支更全面的球队，但他们最近的赛程不容小觑。尽管如此，实力上的差距使得国米有大约46%的夺冠热门。在德比战中，避免失败的愿望往往扮演着重要的角色——尤其是现在意大利杯决赛的席位岌岌可危。我估计总进球数将在2.8个左右，尽管考虑到目前的情况，比分较低的比赛并不令人惊讶。